Brisbane’s Boom is Cooling, but The Underlying Queensland Story Remains Remarkably Strong
By Oliver Dunstan, Licensee-in-Charge & Buyers Agent, Rose & Jones
Brisbane has finally joined the national housing downturn, but it would be a mistake to interpret the latest fall as evidence that Queensland’s extraordinary property cycle has ended. Cotality recorded a 1.0% fall in Brisbane dwelling values during August, taking the quarterly decline to 2.7%. Yet Brisbane values remain 10.8% higher than they were a year ago, delivering a 14.6% total return, with the median dwelling value now sitting at $1,080,142. That combination tells an important story. Brisbane is correcting after exceptional growth, not unwinding it.
Brisbane values are currently just 2.7% below their May 2026 peak. Compare that with Sydney, where values have fallen 7.1% from peak. More importantly, Brisbane dwelling values have increased an extraordinary 64.1% over the past five years and 111.8% over the past decade. Regional Queensland has performed similarly, recording growth of 58.1% over five years and 112.4% over ten years. In other words, a property worth approximately $500,000 a decade ago would, at the broad market level, now be worth more than $1 million. That longer-term context matters enormously. The current downturn should therefore be viewed less as a reversal of Queensland’s growth story and more as a recalibration following an extraordinary expansion in values.
Brisbane’s Affordability Advantage Is Narrowing
One of the defining changes in Brisbane has been its rapid convergence with Australia’s traditionally more expensive housing markets. Brisbane’s median dwelling value now sits above $1.08 million, while its median house value has reached approximately $1.181 million. The median unit value is approximately $854,721.
That creates a new challenge. Brisbane can no longer universally be described as an inexpensive capital-city alternative. Buyers need to become considerably more discerning about what they purchase and how much they pay. The days when broad market growth could compensate for mediocre asset selection are becoming harder to justify.
Houses And Units Move In Lockstep
Interestingly, both Brisbane houses and units declined 1.0% in August. Over the quarter, houses declined 2.9% while units fell 2.0%. Yet over the past year, units have significantly outperformed houses, rising 13.2% compared with 10.3% for houses. Affordability is likely playing an increasingly important role.
As Brisbane house prices have moved beyond $1 million, apartments and townhouses provide an alternative entry point for owner-occupiers and investors who want exposure to desirable inner and middle-ring locations without the price tag associated with detached housing. For buyers, however, that doesn’t mean all units should be treated equally. Scarcity, land component, owner-occupier appeal, building quality and supply risk remain critical.
Brisbane Markets Still Recording Extraordinary Growth
Perhaps the clearest evidence of Brisbane’s underlying strength appears when we move below the city-wide headline. The Sherwood–Indooroopilly SA3 recorded 17.3% annual dwelling growth, taking its median value to approximately $1.146 million. Beenleigh increased 14.9%, Loganlea Carbrook at 14.7%, and Sandgate at 14.6%.
Forest Lake Oxley at 14.0%, Caboolture and Beaudesert at 13.9%, Redcliffe at 13.5%, and Strathpine and Ipswich Inner at 13.2%. These results are particularly interesting because the strongest performers aren’t confined to one price point or geographic pocket. They stretch from established western Brisbane through Logan, Moreton Bay and Ipswich. The common thread is increasingly relative affordability combined with accessibility, infrastructure and owner-occupier demand.
Regional Queensland Remains A Standout
The broader Queensland story becomes even more compelling outside Brisbane. Regional Queensland dwelling values remain 9.1% higher over the past year, delivering a 13.5% total return, while the median dwelling value sits at approximately $844,803 and gross rental yields average 4.2%. Some individual regional markets have recorded exceptional growth.
Darling Downs East leads Queensland with annual dwelling growth of 20.8%, followed by Central Highlands and Darling Downs West–Maranoa at 19.6%, Burnett at 19.5%, Granite Belt at 16.1%, Maryborough at 13.8% and Bundaberg at 13.2%. For investors, these figures highlight the breadth of Queensland’s property cycle. Growth isn’t simply a Brisbane phenomenon.
The Rental Equation Remains Attractive
Brisbane’s rental fundamentals also remain supportive. House rents have risen approximately 6.7% over the past year, while unit rents increased 5.6%. Gross dwelling yields currently sit around 3.4%, marginally above Sydney’s 3.3%. Regional Queensland provides a stronger income proposition again, with average gross yields of approximately 4.2%.
As property values soften while rents continue rising, yields have the potential to improve further. That combination of lower acquisition prices and rising rental income is one we watch closely for investment clients.
The Rose & Jones View
Queensland has been one of Australia’s great property stories of the past decade. Brisbane values have more than doubled in ten years. Regional Queensland has done the same. That doesn’t mean the next decade will replicate the last, nor does it mean every Queensland property represents good value.
In fact, after such extraordinary growth, asset selection becomes more important, not less. The current slowdown may ultimately be healthy for buyers. Transaction activity has fallen sharply, listings are taking longer to sell, and buyer urgency has diminished nationally. Brisbane is among the markets where sales volumes are now more than 20% lower than a year ago. For disciplined buyers, that creates something Brisbane hasn’t offered consistently during the boom years: time and negotiating leverage.
Our strategy at Rose & Jones is therefore not to chase yesterday’s growth. It is to identify the locations and properties with the characteristics required to produce tomorrow’s. The opportunity in Queensland hasn’t disappeared. The market has simply shifted from one where almost everything was rising to one where buying the right property, at the right price, matters again. If you’re considering your next move in the current market, speak with Oliver Dunstan at Rose & Jones for expert guidance grounded in the data, not the headlines.
Oliver Dunstan
Licensee-in-Charge & Buyers Agent, Rose & Jones
*Source: CoreLogic Home Value Index, August 2026